Youm-e-Takbeer Seminar Highlights Pakistan’s Evolving Deterrence Strategy and Regional Security Dynamics

Islamabad: Marking the 27th anniversary of Pakistan’s nuclear tests, the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) through its Arms Control and Disarmament Centre (ACDC) hosted a high-level seminar titled “The Future of Deterrence and Emerging Challenges”. The event commemorated Youm-e-Takbeer and brought together prominent strategic experts, including Lt. General (R) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, NI(M), HI, HI(M), Advisor to the National Command Authority (NCA) and former Director General of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), as the keynote speaker.

In a wide-ranging address, Lt. Gen. (R) Kidwai outlined the emergence of a “new normal” in South Asia’s strategic calculus, citing the recent brief but intense military exchange between India and Pakistan as a turning point. He described the 87-hour conflict as a “mini war” that tested both conventional and nuclear deterrence while showcasing the role of advanced technologies and integrated tactics in modern warfare.

He asserted that Pakistan’s air power, particularly the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), had now taken a leading role in regional deterrence, reversing the traditional air superiority previously held by India. “The PAF’s dominance, aided by advanced Chinese technology and multi-domain integration, has established Pakistan as the preeminent air power in South Asia,” he said.

Lt. Gen. Kidwai emphasized that Pakistan’s full-spectrum deterrence, underpinned by a credible nuclear arsenal and robust conventional forces, had effectively constrained India’s political and military options. He reiterated that any future Indian aggression would face a “notch-up response,” referencing Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir’s stated doctrine of “Quid Pro Quo Plus.”

Referring to the 2019 Balakot strikes and the 2025 Azad Kashmir episode, he stated that India had twice tested Pakistan’s resolve and capability — and lost on both counts. He credited these episodes with reinforcing Pakistan’s deterrence credibility and reaffirmed Islamabad’s commitment to responding proportionately, yet decisively, to any provocation.